Definition of Incumbency
An incumbent is an individual who currently holds an elected office or position.
The word "incumbent" comes from the Latin word incumbere, meaning "to lean or lay upon" or "recline on".
In the United States, the incumbent U.S. President is Joe Biden, whether he runs for re-election or not. Typically, the term is used during an election, but an incumbent can also be a "lame duck" - an incumbent who is not running for re-election.
Fig 1. American Flag Waving
The Meaning of Incumbency
The incumbency factor is a well-understood factor in elections. A candidate who already holds the office they are up for in an election holds historical and structural advantages. The benefits of incumbency result in an increased chance of winning an election. Let's look at why.
Advantages of Incumbency
The incumbent already holds the office they are seeking, which can give the appearance of being able to do the job.
Incumbents tend to have a record of policies, legislation, and accomplishments that they can highlight.
Incumbents typically have a large staff that often assists with campaign support and sets up opportunities and appearances for the office holder. Mailings to constituents and legislative staff can assist with campaign initiatives with experience in the process.
Popularity can be developed during the current term with name recognition and media coverage. When voters head to the polls, obscure candidates often lose out to well-known rivals.
Fundraising clout and name recognition can scare off challengers (both primary and in general elections)
Power of the "Bully Pulpit." The President's national platform and media coverage are substantial.
Fig. 2 President Roosevelt in Maine 1902
The "Bully Pulpit"
The youngest person to become President, Theodore Roosevelt, brought energy and an outspoken approach to his role as President after the assassination of President William McKinley. Roosevelt used what he called the 'bully pulpit," meaning it was a good preaching position to advance his policies and ambitions. He responded to critics who challenged his outspoken nature with:
I suppose my critics will call that preaching, but I have got such a bully pulpit!”
Roosevelt's expansion of executive power and the national stage made this phrase an enduring theme of Presidential and national power.
Name Recognition Matters! Political Science Professor Cal Jillson explains the familiarity of candidates in Congressional races:
"Voters like to vote for candidates they know, or at least know of, but they do not like to spend time getting to know candidates. As a result, more than half of eligible voters even at the height of a congressional campaign were unable to name either candidate running in their district, and only 22 percent of voters could name both candidates. Voters who could name only one candidate almost always named the incumbent, and almost no one could name only the challenger."
Simply put, being the incumbent goes a long way!
Disadvantages of Incumbency
Track record. The other side of the track record coin is that failures or accomplishments may be disagreeable to voters. Candidates who have not held that office can offer a fresh face.
Incumbent candidates typically have to navigate criticism over their actions in office, which can take a toll on their favorability rating among voters.
Redistricting at the state and national level (U.S. House) occurs every ten years, potentially impacting Congressional incumbents.
In a presidential election year, the President typically helps Congressional candidates of the same party. In mid-term elections, the party opposed to the President typically benefits in Congressional races.
Examples of Incumbency
Political scientists have studied the phenomenon of incumbency in America since the 1800s. Both Presidential and Congressional elections highlight the importance of incumbency.
Presidential Elections
Let's look at the 12 Presidential Elections from 1980 - 2024. Historically, an incumbent President has strong chance of winning re-election, but recent elections demonstrate a weakened incumbent advantage.
Recent Presidential Elections
| | |
to be decided | 2024 | Joe Biden would be an incumbent, should he run again. |
incumbent loses | 2020 | Donald Trump (incumbent) loses to Joe Biden |
no incumbent | 2016 | Donald Trump (winner) v. Hillary Clinton |
incumbent wins | 2012 | Barack Obama (incumbent) beats Mitt Romney |
no incumbent | 2008 | Barack Obama (winner) v. John McCain) |
incumbent wins | 2004 | George W. Bush (incumbent) wins against John Kerry |
no incumbent | 2000 | George W. Bush (winner) and Al Gore |
incumbent wins | 1996 | Bill Clinton (incumbent ) defeats Bob Dole |
incumbent loses | 1992 | George H.W. Bush (incumbent) loses to Bill Clinton |
no incumbent | 1988 | George H.W. Bush (winner) v. Michael Dukakis |
incumbent advantage | 1984 | Ronald Reagan (incumbent) defeats Walter Mondale |
incumbent loses | 1980 | Jimmy Carter (incumbent) loses to Ronald Reagan |
Figure 3, StudySmarter Original.
The Vice-President and incumbency is an interesting relationship. Previously, holding the office of Vice-President was more directly connected with winning the Presidency after the President could no longer run. Since 1980, only George W. Bush and Joe Biden served as Vice-President before winning the Presidency. In Biden's case, he ran 4 years AFTER leaving the V.P. role.
Incumbent Streaks
The incumbent advantage was particularly noticeable in three periods of U.S. Presidential Elections:
Thomas Jefferson (re-elected in 1804), James Madison (re-elected in 1812), and James Monroe (re-elected in 1820) began the first streak of three successive incumbent wins.
Franklin D. Roosevelt, first elected in 1932 was re-elected in 1936, 1940, and 1944. Before presidential terms limits, F.D.R. had a clear incumbent advantage as Americans chose to keep one President during much of the Great Depression and most of World War Two.
More recently; Bill Clinton (re-elected in 1996), George W. Bush (re-elected in 2004), and Barack Obama (re-elected in 2012) all won successive elections as the incumbent U.S. President.
Out of the 46 U.S. Presidents, three chose not to run and 11 lost despite their incumbent status. Re-election is aided by incumbency advantages.
To restate the basic finding, parties during American history have kept the presidency roughly two-thirds of the time when they have run incumbent candidates but only exactly half the time when they have not"
-Professor David Mayhew - Yale University
Congressional Elections
In Congressional races, incumbents usually win re-election. Due to fundraising advantages, track records, staff assistance (in Washington and in their districts), and name recognition; members of Congress seeking a new term have distinct advantages.
In the last 60 years:
✔ 92% of House incumbents won re-election (2-year terms with no limits).
and
✔ 78% of Senate incumbents won re-election (6-year terms with no limits).
In Congressional elections, the advantages of being the incumbent are overwhelmingly clear.
Fundraising is crucial. With rising personnel, operations, and advertising rates, the cost of running a Congressional political campaign has risen to tens of millions of dollars for some highly contested races.With prior fundraising experience, name recognition, unspent funds, time in office, and existing donors; it is no surprise that most incumbent candidates begin with a clear financial advantage.
Incumbency - Key takeaways
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