In the examples you have looked at so far, it didn't make a difference if the random variables followed a normal distribution. The only thing that mattered is that they were independent random variables.
Let's look at an example to illustrate this.
Suppose you have a business where you are making and delivering pizzas, where both making and delivering the pizzas are normal distributions, with
- making the pizza has an average time of \(18\) minutes with a standard deviation of \(1.5\) minutes; and
- delivering the pizzas has an average time of \(25\) minutes with a standard deviation of \(8\) minutes.
(a) What is the probability that making and delivering a pizza takes more than an hour?
(b) What percentage of the pizzas take longer to make than to deliver?
Solution:
(a) In this part of the question you are looking for the total time, in other words, the sum of two normally distributed independent random variables. First, let's define the random variables:
- \(X\) is the random variable for the time it takes to make a pizza;
- \(Y\) is the random variable for the time it takes to deliver a pizza; and
- \(T\) is the random variable to the total time to make and deliver a pizza.
You are told that both of the random variables are normal, and you would expect that making the pizza and delivering the pizza are independent of each other. So \(T\) is also normally distributed, with \(T = X + Y\).
The average time to make and deliver a pizza would be
\[ \begin{align} \mu_T &= \mu_X + \mu_Y \\ &= 18 + 25 \\ &= 43 \, min. \end{align}\]
Since the times are independent,
\[ \begin{align} \sigma^2_T &= \sigma^2_X + \sigma^2_Y \\ &= 1.5^2 + 8^2 \\ &= 66.25,\end{align} \]
so
\[ \sigma_T = \sqrt{66.25} \approx 8.1 \, min.\]
In other words, \(T\) is a normal distribution with mean \(43\) and standard deviation \(8.1\).
You want to know the probability that making and delivering a pizza takes more than an hour. The graph below shows the normal distribution for the total time, and the shaded region represents the time over \(60\) minutes.
Fig. 4. Normal Distribution showing time longer than an hour
Then the \(z\)-score associated with \(60\) minutes is
\[ z = \frac{60-43}{8.1} = 2.099\]
which, using a standard normal table, gives you the probability of taking more than \(60\) minutes is
\[ P(T>60) = P(z>2.099) = 0.0179.\]
In other words, there is only a \(1.79\%\) chance that a pizza will take longer than an hour to make and deliver!
(b) Next you want to know the percentage of the pizzas take longer to make than to deliver. This time you want to know about the difference between \(X\) and \(Y\), so you need a new random variable, call it \(D\), to represent this. In other words \(D = X - Y\). It is still true that both \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent random variables that follow a normal distribution.
The average time difference between making and delivering a pizza would be
\[ \begin{align} \mu_D &= \mu_X - \mu_Y \\ &= 18 - 25 \\ &= -8 \, min. \end{align}\]
Since the times are independent,
\[ \begin{align} \sigma^2_D &= \sigma^2_X + \sigma^2_Y \\ &= 1.5^2 + 8^2 \\ &= 66.25,\end{align} \]
so
\[ \sigma_D = \sqrt{66.25} \approx 8.1 \, min.\]
In other words, \(D\) is a normal distribution with mean \(-8\) and standard deviation \(8.1\). If a pizza takes longer to make than to deliver, what you want to find is \(P(D>0)\). In the graph below, the shaded region represents when the pizza takes longer to make than to deliver.
Fig. 5. Normal distribution showing time greater than 0
Then the \(z\)-score associated with \(0\) minutes is
\[ z = \frac{0-(-8)}{8.1} = 0.988\]
which, using a standard normal table, gives you the probability of taking more than \(60\) minutes is
\[ P(D>0) = P(z>0.988) = 0.1611.\]
In other words, about \(16\%\) of the time, the pizza will take longer to make than to deliver.